Derive.xyz Market Insights: July 18th 2025

Derive.xyz Market Update: ETH eyes $4K as shorts get nuked – $190M liquidated in breakout surge

July 18, 2025 By Dr. Sean Dawson

Ethereum’s moment in the sun has finally arrived, as it surged by more than 10% in the past 2 days, to just under $3.5K. Traders are aggressively positioned for a rapid move to $4K by July 25.

Compared to BTC, it has also increased but only by a modest 1% to $119K.

The sharp rally marks a potential breakout moment for Ethereum, fueled by bullish macro conditions, rising institutional inflows, and an overwhelming shift in sentiment.

This isn’t just a spike, it’s a regime change. We’re seeing explosive upside bets and a wave of short liquidations. The market may finally be waking up to ETH’s asymmetric upside.

Derive option market flows:

In the past 24 hours, 25% of Derive’s ETH trading volume has been concentrated on call options between $3K and $4K for the July 25 expiry, a strong signal that traders are aligned on a fast, continued breakout.

Additionally, 8% of all open interest for that expiry is now sitting on the $4,000 ETH strike, reflecting a growing appetite for leveraged long exposure as bullish conviction builds.

Percentage of open interest by strike for the July 25 expiry on Derive

Type: light blue = call, dark blue = put

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

During this move, over $190 million in ETH shorts and $73.5 million in BTC shorts were liquidated, fueling an aggressive short squeeze that pushed prices even higher.

Liquidations across all exchanges over the last 24 hours

Source: Coinglass

Price predictions

There is a 14% chance that ETH ends July above $4K, and a 27% chance it reaches above $5K by the end of 2025.

For BTC, there is an 18% chance it finishes July above $125K, and a 12% chance it ends 2025 above $170K.

BTC is participating, but this rally belongs to ETH. The technical setup, option flows, and liquidations all point to a meaningful structural shift in positioning.

With macro tailwinds, falling rates, and ETF momentum aligning, the back half of 2025 is setting up to be Ethereum’s strongest in years.