December 18, 2025 By Nick Forster
Markets continue to slide as we head into the New Year, with prices sitting on a knife’s edge amid mixed U.S. economic data and persistent macro uncertainty.
BTC positioning remains decisively bearish. 30-day BTC volatility has climbed back toward 45%, while skew hovers around -5%. Longer-dated skew is also anchored around -5%, signalling that traders are pricing continued downside risk through Q1 and Q2, as ongoing sell pressure from previously inactive wallets weighs on spot prices.
Looking into the December 26 expiry, positioning is increasingly polarised. On the upside, there is a notable build-up of calls at the $100K and $120K strikes, suggesting some traders are still holding out for a sharp relief rally. On the downside, bears have accumulated substantial put exposure at the $85K strike, pointing to expectations of BTC sliding below $85K in the near term.
ETH tells a more nuanced story. Short-dated ETH skew remains negative at -4%, reflecting near-term caution, but longer-dated 180-day skew sits closer to -1%, indicating a far more balanced outlook into the end of Q2 next year compared to BTC’s persistent bearish bias.
Despite the recent drawdown, ETH call positioning is relatively flat across the $3K, $4K and even $5K strikes, although some of this upside exposure may reflect legacy bullish positioning. On the downside, there is a sizable concentration of puts at the $2.5K strike for the December 26 expiry, highlighting a key level traders are hedging against.
Option-implied probabilities suggest cautious optimism beneath the surface. Markets are pricing a 45% chance ETH reclaims $3K by the end of Q1 next year, and a 25% chance it surpasses $4K over the same period.
For BTC, the probability of reaching $100K sits near 30%, while the chance of reclaiming all-time highs remains around 10%.
Overall, volatility remains elevated and positioning is defensive, but upside tails have not been fully abandoned as markets brace for a volatile start to the year.
