August 19, 2025 By Nick Forster
It’s been a turbulent 24 hours in the crypto market, with over $270 million in liquidations, led by $170 million in ETH and $104 million in BTC. A vast majority (95%) of these were longs, triggered by moderate pullbacks of 3% for ETH and 2% for BTC.
Liquidations over the last 24 hours
Source: Coinglass
This flush comes as expectations for a Fed rate cut in September dropped sharply, with no-cut odds on Polymarket jumping from 12% to over 26%. Traders are now re-positioning ahead of Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole.
In response, short-dated (7-day) ETH implied volatility spiked from 68% to 73% in the last 24 hours, while 30-day IV remains stable – a sign that markets expect heightened volatility in the immediate term.
7-day (red) vs. 30-day (blue) ETH volatility
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
If Powell signals a continued hawkish stance, we could see a rapid correction in digital assets, particularly for BTC and ETH.
Price Predictions
The chance of BTC hitting $100K before the end of September is now 21%, up from 15%
While the probability of ETH correcting to $4K by the end of September has risen to 60%, up from 45% – a move consistent with increased demand for ETH puts and rising short-term IV.
Traders are bracing for a volatile end to August, with all eyes on Jackson Hole.
