Derive.xyz Market Update: ETH's $6K Christmas Rally – Options Odds Surge from 7% to 30%
July 25 2025 by Nick Forster
The bull run may have paused, but don’t let that distract from what’s been a monster month across crypto derivatives.
ETH's upside bets are exploding. The probability of ETH hitting $6K by December 25 has more than quadrupled, from just under 7% at the start of July to over 30% today. That’s a massive re-pricing of tail risk.
Chance of ETH hitting $6K by December 25, 2025
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
For Bitcoin, Mike Novogratz’s $150K prediction isn’t some moonshot anymore. Options markets now imply a 52% chance of BTC hitting $150,000 by year-end.
What’s even more interesting is the volatility differential: BTC’s implied December volatility is just 30%, while ETH’s is 60%. So expect a smoother climb for BTC, and a wilder ride for ETH.
Chance of BTC hitting $150K by December 25, 2025
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
Solana had the sharpest pullback of the ‘Holy Trinity’ (BTC/ETH/SOL). Its odds of clearing $300 by December 25 surged from 25% to 45% in 10 days, before correcting to 36%. This SOL options board only launched on July 16:
Chance of SOL hitting $300 by December 25, 2025
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
On volatility, short-term BTC vol is cheap. We’re seeing 180-day IV trade 6% above 30-day. Bulls can lever up cheaply, while bears can protect downside at a discount. This kind of volatility compression often precedes explosive moves.
BTC volatility for 180 and 30 DTE
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
And with President Trump hinting at firing Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, a lower interest rate regime could kick off a buying frenzy in majors, and eventually, alts. Volatility is a buy here.
