Derive.xyz Market Update: July 29 2025

Derive.xyz Market Update: ETH $4.5K odds soar as BTC volatility stays muted

July 29, 2025 by Dr. Sean Dawson

In the last 24 hours, prices have been mostly stable across the board. ETH briefly rallied up to $3,950 before pulling back to $3,780, while BTC has dropped slightly from $119.5K to $117.8K.

BTC is expected to be more volatile over the next 90 days than the next 30. Meanwhile, ETH was predicted to have lower short-term volatility earlier this month, but this has since reversed.

This shift is evident in the 30-90 day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) spread. The spread for ETH (red line) is now consistently higher than BTC’s (blue line). A positive IV spread suggests traders expect more near-term volatility relative to longer-term (90-day) volatility.

30-90 day ATM IV spreads for ETH and BTC over the last month

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

BTC’s 30-day ATM volatility has dropped to its lowest level in the last fortnight, now sitting at 36%, down from a peak of 40%.

30-day BTC IV

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

ETH IV has also fallen but remains nearly 27 points higher than BTC.

30-day ETH IV

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

The probability of ETH hitting $4,500 by August 29 has skyrocketed to 45%, up from just 5% at the start of July.

Chance of ETH hitting 4.5K by end of August

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

In contrast, BTC’s chances of reaching $150K by August have stagnated over the past week. It currently sits just under 20%, down from highs of 30% around mid-July.

Chance of BTC hitting $150K by end of August

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

Since May, ETH has been on an absolute tear relative to BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio has almost doubled from 0.018 BTC per ETH to 0.0325. The rise of ETH treasury companies like Bitmine and Ethermachine signals growing institutional alignment and could mark the start of a new alt season heading into Q3 2025.