March 11, 2026 By Nick Forster
Crypto markets are beginning to stabilize as geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing conflict in Iran continue.
Despite earlier fears of a catastrophic crash of the crypto markets, derivatives markets suggest those concerns may have been overstated. BTC skew – a key measure of sentiment in options markets – has rebounded sharply from around -25% (normalized by at-the-money implied volatility) to roughly +10% today, signalling a significant shift away from aggressive downside hedging.
BTC skew normalized by ATM IV
Trading flows reinforce this change in sentiment. Over the past week, put selling has surged across options markets. On Deribit, seven of the 10 highest-premium trades were puts, particularly across strikes at $70K and above. This pattern typically indicates traders are willing to take on downside risk in exchange for premium, which is consistent with expectations of stabilizing or rising prices.
Combined with the recovery in skew, this activity suggests many traders expect bitcoin to recover toward the $80K level between June and September. Current options pricing shows roughly a 35% probability that BTC will reach above $80K by the end of June.
Given the significant drawdown crypto markets have endured in recent months, the shift is notable and signals a surprising degree of resilience in trader sentiment.
Ethereum derivatives markets show an even stronger tilt toward upside positioning. Nine of the 10 largest ETH option purchases over the past week were calls, with the majority clustered around the $2.5K strike – roughly 25% above current levels. Notably, a sizeable purchase was also recorded at the $4K strike for the September expiry, suggesting some traders are positioning for a far larger rebound later in the year.
This shows that traders are quietly betting the worst of the crypto sell-off may already be behind us.
