Derive.xyz July 2025 Market Update: Institutions cash out as BTC volatility compresses – traders brace for downside
August 1, 2025 by Nick Forster
30-day BTC volatility has edged down from 36% to 34% this month, suggesting the early stages of volatility compression. However, storm clouds are forming as tariff negotiations and renewed concerns about Fed independence loom over markets.
BTC 30-day volatility over the last month
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
Predictions
The chance of BTC reverting to $100K before the end of September is about 30%, while the chance of ETH reverting to $3K by the same time is about 35%. There is also a 46% chance BTC hits $150K and 12% chance BTC will hit $200K sometime before the end of year.
ETH vs BTC volatility divergence growing
The 30-day volatility gap between ETH and BTC has widened from 24% to 30% over the last month. ETH is expected to remain more volatile, likely reflecting renewed investor interest following its 10th birthday and the rise of ETH treasury companies such as Ethermachine and Bitmine.
30-day ATM difference between ETH and BTC
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
Institutional profit taking surfaces in July
Late July saw a wave of realized profits in the $6-8 billion range, suggesting that institutions, satisfied with recent returns, are de-risking ahead of a choppy Q3.
Around $10 billion worth of BTC (~80,000 BTC) was sold over-the-counter on July 15, triggering a brief 4% price drop. Miners offloaded about 15,000 BTC shortly after it hit new all-time-highs.
Options market signals bearish tilt
BTC 30-day skew has flipped from +3% to -1.5%, meaning puts are now priced higher than calls. This indicates strong demand for downside insurance, as traders expect one to two months of bearish price action.
