August 6, 2025 By Dr. Sean Dawson

Traders are bracing for downside across both BTC and ETH in August, with options positioning on Derive.xyz skewed heavily toward puts.

ETH positioning

On Derive.xyz, we’re seeing puts now exceed calls by just over 10% for the August 29 expiry. The heaviest put interest is clustered around $3,200, $3,000, and $2,200, suggesting traders are preparing for anything from a moderate pullback to a deeper correction.

BTC positioning

The bearish tilt is far more pronounced in Bitcoin. For the August 29 expiry, put open interest is almost 5x that of calls. Nearly half of this is concentrated at the $95K strike, with another 25% split between $80K and $100K strikes. The positioning signals traders are heavily betting on a painful move back below $100K.

Skew trendsSkew, the measure of relative pricing between puts and calls, has been falling steadily, reflecting rising demand for downside protection.

  • BTC 30-day skew: Down from +2% to -2% over the last month
  • ETH 30-day skew: Down from +6% to -2% over the same period.

Volatility:BTC and ETH monthly volatility remain near 35% and 65% respectively. However, the volatility gap between the two has widened sharply – from 24% at the start of June to almost 30% today – pointing to a bumpier ride for ETH through August.

Price Predictions:

There’s a 25% chance of ETH falling below $3K before the end of August. However, recovery in ETH’s price and elevated volatility have lifted the probability of finishing above $4K by the end of August to ~30%, up from 15% just last week.

For BTC, we’re seeing an ~18% chance of retesting $100K before the end of August.”